This paper examines the relationship between changes in crime demand and charge volumes in England and Wales during the COVID-19 lockdowns. It seeks to add to a modest evidence base on the relationship between changes in police workload and the detection of crimes.

This analysis has drawn on statistics on changes in police recorded crime and charge volumes, along with forecasting analysis to explore evidence of a workload effect. The analysis has taken advantage of the changing conditions created by COVID-19 restrictions and its impact on crime demand, as a ‘natural experiment’ to understand the impact of changes in police workload on charges. This builds on other work which has looked at the existence of a workload effect – that higher police crime workloads result in fewer crimes being cleared.