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National Population Projections (Series PP2)

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National population projections are prepared by the Office for National Statistics on behalf of the National Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The assumptions are agreed in liaison with the devolved administrations, following consultation with key users of projections in each country and advice from an expert academic advisory panel.

National population projections by age and sex are produced for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

National Population Projections, 2020-based interim National Population Projections, 2020-based interim is in stock now
National Population Projections, 2020-based interim

The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Main points
  • The population of the UK is projected to increase by 3.2% in the first 10 years of the projections, from an estimated 67.1 million in mid-2020 to 69.2 million in mid-2030.
  • England's population is projected to grow more quickly than the other UK nations: 3.5% between mid-2020 and mid-2030, compared with 2.6% for Wales, 2.0% for Northern Ireland and 0.3% for Scotland.
  • UK population growth over the next 10 years is projected to be driven by a net 2.2 million people migrating into the country.
  • There will be an increasing number of older people; the number of people aged 85 years and over was estimated to be 1.7 million in 2020 (2.5% of the UK population) and this is projected to almost double to 3.1 million by 2045 (4.3% of the UK population).
  • Over the next 10 years, there is projected to be a total of 59,000 more deaths than births; this reflects lower projected fertility rates for all countries and an increasing number of older people as those born in the baby boom generations after World War Two and in the 1960s reach older ages.
  • The projected UK population growth is slower than in the 2018-based projections; the projected population is 0.6 million fewer in mid-2030 and 1.8 million fewer in mid-2045.
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Published by
Dandy Booksellers Ltd
Publication Date
18 May 2022
2020 (No 33)
Publisher's Ref
Series PP2 No 33
83 pages plus CD-ROM
A4 (210 x 297 mm)
Approx Weight
0.26 kg
HS Code

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