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Online Catalogue

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National Population Projections (Series PP2)

Online Catalogue | Official Publications | Non-Parliamentary Official Publications | ONS |  National Population Projections (Series PP2)

National population projections are prepared by the Office for National Statistics on behalf of the National Statistician and the Registrars General of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The assumptions are agreed in liaison with the devolved administrations, following consultation with key users of projections in each country and advice from an expert academic advisory panel.

National population projections by age and sex are produced for the UK and its constituent countries every two years. The projections are based on the most recently available mid-year population estimates and a set of underlying demographic assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

National Population Projections, 2021-based interim
National Population Projections, 2021-based interim is in stock now

National Population Projections, 2021-based interim

Including CD-ROM of data

The potential future population size of the UK. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Main points
  • Over the 15 years between mid-2021 and mid-2036, the UK population is projected to grow by 6.6 million people (9.9%) from an estimated 67.0 million to 73.7 million; this includes 541,000 more births than deaths, and net international migration of 6.1 million people.
  • The UK population is projected to reach 70 million by mid-2026; this growth is faster than in the 2020-based projections released in January 2023 with the projected increase mainly resulting from international migration.
  • The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 315,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; this is based on expert views and the latest data covering the last 10 years; note migration assumptions do not directly account for recent and future policy or economic changes and there is always some uncertainty in estimates of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and resulting population may be higher or lower than those assumed in these projections.
  • There will be an increasing number of older people; over the next 15 years the size of the UK population aged 85 years and over is projected to increase from 1.6 million (2.5% of the total population) to 2.6 million (3.5%).
Office for National Statistics (ONS)
Published by
Dandy Booksellers Ltd
Publication Date
12 February 2024
2021 (No 34)
Publisher's Ref
Series PP2 No 34
85 pages plus CD-ROM
A4 (210 x 297 mm)
Approx Weight
0.26 kg
HS Code

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