Modern Slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, August 2026

Product Description

Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK that come to the attention of authorised ‘first responder’ organisations are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM). Authorised ‘first responder’ organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the HO on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision which the government committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has mostly fallen since then. At the end of December 2025, it was less than a third of what it was at its peak, but it has risen slightly since April 2026. Nonetheless, the backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision is close to being eradicated, so the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision is soon expected to represent the working caseload in any given month. As such it will likely vary over time depending on system intake and throughput, which may result in small fluctuations month by month in the future.