National Population Projections, 2022-based interim

Product Description

The potential future population size of the UK. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

Main points

• Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million (7.3%) from an estimated 67.6 million to 72.5 million; this increase is projected to arise from net migration of 4.9 million compared with 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths.
• The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 340,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; there is always uncertainty in estimates and projections of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and the resulting population may be higher or lower than assumed in these projections.
• Between mid-2022 to mid-2032, it is projected that there will be a similar number of deaths and births in the UK; although births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are projected to rise because of the relatively large number of people born in the post-World War 2 period reaching older ages.
• Between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the number of people at state pension age is projected to increase by 1.7 million from an estimated 12.0 million to 13.7 million people (13.8% increase); this takes into account the planned increases in State Pension age to 67 for both sexes.
• England's population is projected to grow more quickly than other UK nations between mid-2022 and mid- 2032: by 7.8%, compared with 5.9% for Wales, 4.4% for Scotland and 2.1% for Northern Ireland.