Evaluation of the County Lines Programme (updated) (January 2020 to January 2025)

Product Description

This report provides an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the County Lines Programme in addressing its key crime outcomes, expanding on the previous evaluation conducted in 2024 by the London School of Economics. The previous evaluation examined the effectiveness of the County Lines Programme from the commencement of the Programme in November 2019 up to January 2024. This update includes at least an additional year of data across all variables, up to January 2025; the inclusion of police-recorded knife crime as an outcome variable; and additional analysis to help indicate whether the County Lines Programme’s effectiveness varies across different police force areas.

Key Findings:
The Programme is continuing to reduce serious knife-related harms.
The County Lines Programme has led to a 25% reduction in hospital admissions for stabbings in exporter areas. This is an increased impact compared to the 19% found in the 2024 evaluation. Therefore, the Programme has prevented approximately 672 hospitalisations due to stabbings per year, between its commencement in November 2019 and January 2025.
The County Lines Programme may be having a suppressive effect on police-recorded knife crime.
Despite improvements in recording and reporting of violent crime overall, the evaluation shows no substantive change to police-recorded knife crime following the introduction of the County Lines Programme.
Other police-recorded crimes are increasing as a result of the Programme.
This may be, in part, likely due to improved recording practices, and also heightened and targeted policing. This includes increases in police-recorded violent crime and drug trafficking, which is consistent with findings reported in the 2024 evaluation.
The Programme is having a persistent and pronounced effect on drug-related harms.
The County Lines Programme led to a 29% reduction in drug-misuse hospitalisations in the exporter forces; a more substantial impact than the 14% reported in the 2024 evaluation. This reduction is also observed on a smaller scale (12%) in the surrounding importer areas. Therefore, the Programme has prevented approximately 1,816 hospitalisations annually due to drug-misuse between its commencement in November 2019 and January 2025.
There is not enough evidence to fully evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the Programme in different police force areas.
However, the available evidence suggests there are unlikely to be statistically significant differences in how exporter forces are performing, based on the evaluation method and results. Further analysis is required to fully confirm this finding.